| Open the paper or switch on the TV news or a radio | | | | themselves on another year of insane appreciation, |
| talk show, and chances are you're going to encounter | | | | local real estate agents may be wondering where their |
| something about the real estate market and its recent | | | | next meal is coming from and many of their clients will |
| downturn. | | | | still be left out in the cold. |
| Typically, those who have staked their professional | | | | A change in the number of sales is typically taken as |
| reputations on being dark horse skeptics are predicting | | | | an auger of where prices are headed. As inventory |
| nothing short of a global economic apocalypse. | | | | increases and sales drop, the stage is set for |
| Others often those on the take from the real estate | | | | desperate sellers to begin lowering prices. But that |
| industry scoff at such dire visions. Don't listen to the | | | | doesn't always happen. April sales numbers dropped |
| doomsayers, they say we're in for a soft landing, and I | | | | precipitously between 2000 and 2001, but prices rose. |
| don't believe it | | | | Don't get me wrong, I'm not predicting another replay |
| But how these perspectives affect the average | | | | of 2001. |
| person with a mortgage or with a dream of buying his | | | | Nationally, inventory has increased by over 300 |
| own house is anything but clear. So who do you listen | | | | percent since 2001. And many places are already |
| to, and what does it all mean? | | | | showing signs that prices are being slashed like a |
| But what if you're not an investor? For the average | | | | proverbial blue light special. Last month, for instance, a |
| home buyer, these market generalizations and big | | | | quarter of Marin Country California listings saw their |
| trend stories may not mean a whole lot. | | | | prices reduced. For many years Marin County was the |
| Why not? Even in our global economy, real estate is | | | | highest priced real estate in the country. |
| still a local matter. And what holds true for your | | | | But so far, the bubble has shown signs only of leaking, |
| brother's house in Poughkeepsie may not have much | | | | not popping. Most localities despite steep declines in |
| bearing on your condo on Nob Hill. Indeed, your condo | | | | sales continue to appreciate, though rates have |
| may share a very different fate from the | | | | dropped to single digits. |
| multi-million-dollar mansion down the street. | | | | In layman's terms that means the home you bought a |
| Different areas have been hit by the slowing real | | | | 18 months ago at a ridiculous price would still command |
| estate market in very different ways. Places like San | | | | an even more ridiculous price today. |
| Diego which witnessed Wild West style appreciation | | | | At this point, I think the best answer is it that it all |
| seem to have been hit the hardest. | | | | depends on what you're buying or selling and how it's |
| In contrast, undiscovered markets like Boise, Idaho, and | | | | priced. Does this mean that home prices haven't |
| Marfa, Texas, have been discovered big time. Since | | | | significantly declined? Not exactly. |
| homes in these towns and small cities are still | | | | Real estate agents have ways of relisting their |
| considered cheap by many living in big cities, they are | | | | properties at lower prices without signaling a price |
| enjoying an extended, no end in sight boom, largely | | | | reduction. Sometimes it's their way to make the listing |
| funded by second-home buyers and investors. | | | | seem fresh. |
| Some markets seem especially schizophrenic. For | | | | But even if there have been substantial sleight of hand |
| instance, in Solano County California prices have risen | | | | relistings by real estate agents, a serious buyer's |
| over 16 percent since last April, while the number of | | | | market as many of my renter friends would define it |
| houses sold in April 2006 plummeted a full 35.7 percent | | | | has not yet arrived, nor will it ever. |
| in the same period. | | | | The problem for most home buyers is is that even |
| Sales numbers tend to get a lot of attention in real | | | | with substantial price reductions, the market still looks |
| estate punditry because they mean so much to the | | | | absurdly overpriced when compared to their wages. |
| real estate industry itself. After all, high sales mean high | | | | Bubble or no bubble, it's as if real estate froth had |
| commissions. But for the average homeowner, it's the | | | | become like fog: a permanent part of the landscape |
| price that counts. | | | | that many of us, for better or for worse, have decided |
| So while most homeowners can congratulate | | | | to live with. |