Dosage - Common Sense in Statistical Form

Dosage is a statistical tool used by horse breedersNow, here's where dosage starts looking like math.
and handicappers to predict the future performance ofWhen a chef-de-race is in a horse's pedigree, a
a racing thoroughbred.numerical value is determined by the generation in
First, the chefs-de-racewhich that sire appears. Those numbers are assigned
It's all based on a list that works like a "Who's Who" ofalong the B-I-C-S-P lines. Those numbers make up a
thoroughbred breeding. About a hundred years ago, ahorse's Dosage Profile.
French thoroughbred racing scholar named Lt. Col. J.J.So, let's take a look at 2008 "Horse of the Year" Curlin,
Vuillier conducted a study of the top runners in Englandwhose dosage profile is 9-3-8-0-0. Remember B(rilliant)
and France.fast--I(ntermediate)--C(lassic)--S(olid)--P(rofessional)
Vuillier noticed that certain stallions kept appearing onstrong, which means ...
those pedigrees. He studied their records andA Range from Speed to Stamina
determined which characteristics they passed on toNo doubt, according to that layout of those numbers --
later generations.with so many left of center -- Curlin is bred for speed.
He called these stallions the chefs-de-race or "chiefsHe's also bred to go the distance of the Classic races,
of racing." What's more, he noticed that every decadelike the US Triple Crown. But the numbers say that
or so, new stallions showed up on the list.he's a little light on the endurance/stamina.
You'll find the chefs-de-race list online in Dosage:History proved that out. Curlin lost his Belmont Stakes
Pedigree & Performance by Stephen A. Roman,bid, a 1-1/2 race, to the filly Rags to Riches.
PhD.The stats also say that Curlin is a generation or two
How the chefs work into the numbersout from the chefs in his pedigree. The closest one is
A stallion on the list is given an aptitudinal designationhis grandsire Mr. Prospector, who came in second to
that's indicated by a letter, but it's not S for "speed" orTriple Crown winner Secretariat back in the day.
E for "endurance." Think in more metaphorical terms.However, Curlin has other very impressive numbers --
"Brilliant" is used for "speed." And "Professional" is usedlike his $10.2 million in earnings at this writing -- which
for "endurance" or "stamina."make him the reigning richest horse in the world.
So, B=Brilliant (speed), I=Intermediate, C=Classic, S=SolidJust probabilities
and P=Professional(strong.)Handicappers and breeders pay attention to dosage
As you read that list of aptitudinal designations fromas a statistic that can indicate probable performance.
left to right, you can see what resembles aHorses, of course, are living beings that have good
matter-of-degrees from Brilliant (fast) todays and bad.
Professional(tough.)Still, it all follows the old horseman's rule of "breeding
When you look down the columns of names, you'll seethe best to the best to get the best.
parentheses with the letters B, I, C, S, P. Some listingsFor more reading on dosage and source material:
just have one letter, others have a combination of theDosage: Pedigree and Performance by Stephen A.
two.Roman (chef-de-race.com)
Where the numbers come inDosage in a Nutshell from Thoroughbred Champions.