Outlook For Home Prices - Dim

Investors, don't expect home pricing to increasescrew-up the mortgage market for half that amount!)
anytime soon. Recent events indicate that real estateAnd... Fannie is raising its fees. Those extra costs will
values will stay flat or even decline further.be passed onto borrowers as higher interest rates or
Why the gloomy forecast? Let me count the reasons:closing costs. It's a sure thing that mortgage rates will
1. The FHA has banned down-payment grants thatcontinue their upward trends, making it still more difficult
have traditionally been paid for by home sellers.. That isfor home buyers to qualify for a mortgage loan. The
a serious blow to owners of lower priced homes.same goes for those trying to refinance.
Fewer people will be able to afford those homes.Fewer buyers will translate to not only more
Fewer buyers mean downward pressure on homeforeclosures and unsold homes, but falling home prices
values.and tens of thousands of additional home owners who
2. Those having trouble making their mortgageowe more on their mortgages than their homes are
payments may get some relief as provided for in theworth.
recently enacted housing bill. The emphasis should beInvestors should be very careful about buying in this
placed on "may get some relief."market, even though homes are being offered at what
Under the bill, some will be able to convert their highseem to be bargain prices. A bargain is not a bargain if
interest, adjustable rate loans to a fixed rate mortgagetomorrow's value is less than what you are paying
with a lower interest rate. A lower interest rate meanstoday.
lower monthly payments.Are there any bright spots for investors? Thanks for
As with anything created by Washington, don't get tooasking, the answer is yes!
excited until you read the fine print. In this case, to bePrices for farmland in the heartland have hit a new
eligible to switch mortgages, your payment must nowall-time high. Even with the worst housing crisis since
be more than 31% of your income... AND the new loanthe Great Depression, agricultural real estate prices are
cannot exceed 90% of your home's current value.higher than ever.
That last requirement is the killer. With the way homeThe USDA says that the average U.S. farmland is
prices have been falling few will be able to satisfy thatworth $2,350 an acre. That's up over 8% from 2007.
loan to value ratio. Without a new loan they won't beThere's even better news for most farmland in the
able to stay in their current home and that will result inNorthern Plains -- Kansas, Nebraska and the Dakotas -
more homes being offered for sale. More homes +it is up over 15% since last year.
fewer buyers = falling home prices.Farmland in Massachusetts boasts the nation's most
3. Fannie Mae is the motor that drives the mortgagevaluable dirt. It rings the bell at $12,200 an acre.
market. You've read about Fannie Mae's huge financialAt first glance buying a farm has a great deal of
losses, right? Well, now that the horse is out of theappeal for many, but look out. In real life farming can
barn it has dawned on them that they must tightenbe emotionally and financially stressful with success
loan requirements. They have eliminated loans todependent upon many variables, including the weather,
borrowers who many have solid credit scores, buttaxes, domestic and foreign competition, etc.
can't show proof of income or have small or no downOn the other hand, as the world's standard of living
payment funds.grows, so does the demand for food. That can make
(By the way, Daniel Mudd is Fannie Mae's CEO. Hefarm land very valuable for a long time to come.
takes home $12.2 million a year. I would be willing to